Bad things could happen by the end of next week
cartoon of possible President Trump cabinet by the excellent Steve Brodner
Latest odds from the poll gurus give Clinton an 82% chance of winning to Trump’s 18%.
But there are major unknowns this election, such as: how many voters are telling pollsters they’ll vote for Hillary but will chicken out when the day comes because there’s never been a woman President?
Candidate Trump is also a new phenomenon: outrageously disparaging about women, and anyone else who isn’t like him. No one knows how many people are not admitting to pollsters or their wives that, behind the polling booth curtain, they’re going to vote for the big creepy guy.
Election day is Tuesday 8th, and bad things could happen this week and in the days after, such as:
Fighting in the streets?
Trump is whipping up rage among his hard-core fans, screaming that the election is rigged and will be stolen by Clinton and “the establishment”.
In the real world, elections are run by local party bosses. Most rigging or stealing is done by Republicans keeping poor people – who tend to vote Democratic – from voting by making registering expensive, time consuming, and unpleasant. Other tricks include having fewer poll stations in poor neighbourhoods, excluding people in jail or who have ever been in jail, taking countless hours to check IDs on chaotic voter rolls, tampering with electronic votes. This year, expect serious intimidation of voters: Trump has exhorted his followers to go to the polling stations and give Hillary supporters hell. If some crazy gunman fired an automatic weapon into a voter line on Tuesday morning – images going worldwide within minutes – the election could be called off. An Elementum poll of 2000 voters last week found 16% plan on buying a gun “as a result of the upcoming election” – mostly Trumpsters gunning for Clintonistas. Jared Halbrook, 25, of Green Bay, Wisconsin, told the New York Times "[Clinton] has to go by any means necessary, it will be done.” There are already 400 million guns in the USA
Showdown in the Electoral College?
The President is chosen by the Electoral College in which each of the 50 states have as many votes as they have seats in Congress. But the college could be stalemated if Clinton and Trump tie with 269 each of the 538 votes, or another candidate wins a state – Libertarian Gary Johnson of New Mexico, or ex-CIA independent Evan McCullin in his Mormon state of Utah – preventing Clinton and Trump from getting the magic 270. In either case, members of the House of Representatives would elect a President from the top three, most likely Clinton, Trump or McMullin. If the House can’t agree, the Senate chooses a President from the two Vice Presidentials, Tim Kaine (D) or Mike Pence (R), and if the Senate can’t agree, then the Speaker of the House – the House to be elected next week – becomes acting President until either house of Congress picks a winner. Paul Ryan, the current Speaker, who believes no battler deserves a break, could be acting President until 2020.
Meanwhile, Clinton’s lawyers are stressing over what to do if Trump simply refuses to concede defeat. And Clinton critics are stressing over whether she’s planning World War 3 against Russia.
HILLARY’S EMAILS – WTF?
A popular article last week was headlined: “Admit it: You Don’t Actually Know What the Clinton Email Controversy Is”
President Bill Clinton had a secure email server installed at the Clinton’s suburban New York home in the 1990s, because the government email system sucked. When Hillary became Secretary of State in 2009 she had that home system updated and used it for semi-secure e-chat. Thanks to Wikileaks, we now know the emails her enemies rant about reveal that she’s a conniving politician (jeez) and there’s no scandal in there worthy of an episode of House of Cards.
The emails on the Abedin-Weiner laptop prove these people are incompetent, not felons.
TRUMP’S GROPINGS – WTF?
More than a dozen women have gone public about being groped, propositioned, bullied and/or assaulted by the would-be leading man of the free world. None of the women’s accusations will be heard in a courtroom before the election.
AND FINALLY, SOME RANDOM FACTLETS ABOUT THIS ELECTION
* If men were the only voters, the likely result would be 350 electoral votes for Trump versus 188 for Clinton. Trump would romp into the White House.
* The US population is 324 million, minus 79 mill kids, minus 21 mill non-citizens, minus 5 mill felons, leaves 220 mill eligible voters. Subtract the 40% who don’t vote (88 million) and the predicted number of voters is 132 million.
* The US ranks 120th of the 169 countries with data on voter turnout, between the Dominican Republic and Benin.
* There are now more than 27 million Latino voters, about equal with African-Americans.
* Clinton is viewed “favourably” by 45% of voters, Trump by 36%. She is viewed “unfavourably” by 53%, Trump by 61%.
* Voters list their top issues as: The economy 23% Jobs 10% Government dysfunction 13% Foreign threat 13% Healthcare 10%.
* Americans trust Clinton more than Trump on taxes, foreign affairs, healthcare, honesty, temperament, and as a strong leader who “cares about you” and “shares your values”. They rate Trump higher of the two candidates for “saying what they believe”.
* Choosing the President through the Electoral College, rather than via popular vote, means only a few states are competitive. Most presidential campaigns and the media spend their time and money in 10 swing states and all but ignore the other 40 states.